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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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