Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
